Large Sample Valuations of Tenancies-in-Common
By: Tim Husson, Craig McCann, Edward O'Neal, and Carmen Taveras (Oct 2013)
Published in the Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Vol. 20, No 2, 2014.
In this paper, we value a large sample of tenant-in-common (TIC) investments based on cash flow projections found in 194 private placement memoranda. Our sample of TIC offering documents covers approximately 20% of the TIC industry from 2004 to 2009. Based on the sponsor's projections, we find that the TICs on average were worth 83.6 cents per $1 paid by TIC equity investors. However, we have found that sponsors' cash flow projections overstate likely returns to investors by assuming unrealistically high rental growth rates and unrealistically low vacancy and caps rates.
Adjusting only the sponsors' cap rates alone to rates reflecting market conditions lowers the average valuations by 9.5 cents to 74.1 cents per $1. Adjusting the sponsors' unrealistic rental growth rate and vacancy assumptions lowers the average value further. These low valuations are consistent with average upfront fees and reserves equal to 28% and 12% of equity. Our results suggest that private placement sponsors have considerable latitude in their projections, and that investors should view projected returns with skepticism.